Storm Season Roofing Revenue Calculator

A storm-season revenue model should follow demand through capacity and collection. Multiplying leads by a hoped-for close rate and average contract value produces booked-revenue math, not a reliable cash forecast.

Core formulas

Held appointments = valid leads × contact rate × appointment-set rate × held rate

Signed jobs = held appointments × close rate

Expected completed jobs = min(signed jobs, production capacity within the horizon) × completion rate

Collected revenue = completed jobs × collectible billed amount per completed job × collection rate

Collected gross profit = collected revenue − direct job cost

Define every rate using comparable historical storm, territory, source, job type, and team data. Use the same time horizon for production capacity, completion and collection. If capacity is supplied per week, convert it to the selected horizon first.

Apply the collection factor once. The per-job input is the collectible billed amount before that factor, not an amount already collected. If you use actual collected revenue, use that actual amount directly rather than reducing it again. This worksheet models collections less direct job costs; it is not an accrual accounting statement.

Use the sales KPI scorecard to preserve those definitions before managers populate the downside, base, and upside cases.

Input worksheet

Input	Downside	Base	Upside	Evidence
Raw leads				source plan/history
Valid/unique rate				CRM audit
Contact rate				call/CRM log
Appointment-set rate				CRM
Held rate				CRM
Close rate				matched cohort
Production capacity within the selected horizon (jobs)				operations
Completion rate in horizon				job history
Collectible billed amount per completed job, before the collection factor				accounting
Direct job cost/job				job costing
Collection rate				accounting

Worked scenario

Illustrative base case:

• 400 raw leads;
• 80% valid/unique;
• 65% contact rate;
• 45% appointment-set rate;
• 75% held rate;
• 28% close rate;
• 16-job production capacity during the selected horizon;
• 90% completion within the horizon;
• $15,000 collectible billed amount per completed job, before the collection factor;
• $10,500 direct job cost per job;
• 97% collection rate.

The funnel produces about 19.7 signed jobs, but capacity limits the period to 16. At 90% completion, 14.4 jobs complete. Expected collected revenue is 14.4 × $15,000 × 0.97 = $209,520. Expected direct cost is 14.4 × $10,500 = $151,200, producing $58,320 in modeled gross profit before acquisition, sales, and overhead costs.

These are examples, not industry averages.

Model job mix

Do not use one “average roof” when the storm produces repairs, replacements, retail upgrades, commercial work, or jobs with materially different margins and timelines.

Create a row for each job type:

Job type	Share	Collectible billed amount/job before collection factor	Direct cost	Cycle time	Capacity unit

Weight the result, and include cancellation, change-order, supplement, and collection timing under the company's verified process. Do not assume an insurer will approve, pay, or time an amount.

Capacity constraint

Estimate capacity by the actual bottleneck:

• inspections per qualified inspector;
• estimates/scopes per estimator;
• permits and material availability;
• crews and job-days by roof type;
• production-manager bandwidth;
• quality-control and punch-list capacity;
• collections and administrative processing.

Booked revenue above capacity can increase cancellations, cycle time, customer issues, and cash strain.

Cash timing

Build a monthly waterfall from lead to collection. Record deposit/payment terms, financing timing, customer responsibility, production schedule, invoicing, and historical collection lag. Keep coverage and carrier decisions outside the sales forecast unless documented by the authorized party.

Acquisition and profit

Subtract fully loaded source cost and sales cost:

Storm contribution = collected gross profit − lead/marketing cost − incremental sales cost − storm setup/operating cost

Include temporary office, travel, lodging, data, permits, fleet, devices, recruiting, training, management, and cleanup when they are incremental.

Use the roofing lead-cost calculator for source economics and the 30-day onboarding plan for safe capacity gates.

Use the roofing marketing ROI calculator when fully loaded acquisition cost must be compared with collected gross profit, and the AI sales forecasting guide when the model must reconcile signed work with production and cash timing.

Sensitivity checks

Test:

• valid and contact rates;
• held and close rates;
• job mix and gross margin;
• cancellation and collection;
• crew/job-day capacity;
• weather interruptions;
• material/permit lag;
• lead cost and manager capacity.

Publish downside, base, and upside results. A plan that is viable only at the highest close rate and fastest production case is fragile.

Frequently asked questions

Is storm revenue the same as signed contract value?

No. Separate signed, completed, invoiced, collected, and gross-profit values.

What is the most important input?

The current bottleneck. More leads do not help when inspection, estimating, production, or collection capacity is full.

Should insurance proceeds be forecast?

Use only documented information from authorized parties and preserve uncertainty. Do not have sales staff or a calculator predict coverage or approval.

How should close rate be chosen?

Use mature comparable cohorts by source, territory, job type, rep experience, and season. Show a range.

How often should the forecast update?

At a cadence operations can use—often weekly during an active storm—with a data cutoff, changed assumptions, and actual-versus-forecast review.