Storm Season Roofing Revenue Calculator

A storm-season revenue model should follow demand through capacity and collection. Multiplying leads by a hoped-for close rate and average contract value produces booked-revenue math, not a reliable cash forecast. ## Core formulas **Held appointments = valid leads × contact rate × appointment-set rate × held rate** **Signed jobs = held appointments × close rate** **Expected completed jobs = lesser of signed jobs and production capacity × completion rate** **Collected revenue = completed jobs × collected revenue per job × collection rate** **Collected gross profit = collected revenue − direct job cost** Define every rate using comparable historical storm, territory, source, job type, and team data. Use the [sales KPI scorecard](/tools/operations/sales-kpi-scorecard) to preserve those definitions before managers populate the downside, base, and upside cases. ## Input worksheet | Input | Downside | Base | Upside | Evidence | |---|---:|---:|---:|---| | Raw leads | | | | source plan/history | | Valid/unique rate | | | | CRM audit | | Contact rate | | | | call/CRM log | | Appointment-set rate | | | | CRM | | Held rate | | | | CRM | | Close rate | | | | matched cohort | | Weekly production capacity | | | | operations | | Completion rate in horizon | | | | job history | | Collected revenue/job | | | | accounting | | Direct job cost/job | | | | job costing | | Collection rate | | | | accounting | ## Worked scenario Illustrative base case: - 400 raw leads; - 80% valid/unique; - 65% contact rate; - 45% appointment-set rate; - 75% held rate; - 28% close rate; - 16-job production capacity during the selected horizon; - 90% completion within the horizon; - $15,000 collected revenue per completed job; - $10,500 direct job cost per job; - 97% collection rate. The funnel produces about 19.7 signed jobs, but capacity limits the period to 16. At 90% completion, 14.4 jobs complete. Expected collected revenue is 14.4 × $15,000 × 0.97 = **$209,520**. Expected direct cost is 14.4 × $10,500 = **$151,200**, producing **$58,320** in modeled gross profit before acquisition, sales, and overhead costs. These are examples, not industry averages. ## Model job mix Do not use one “average roof” when the storm produces repairs, replacements, retail upgrades, commercial work, or jobs with materially different margins and timelines. Create a row for each job type: | Job type | Share | Collected revenue | Direct cost | Cycle time | Capacity unit | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| Weight the result, and include cancellation, change-order, supplement, and collection timing under the company's verified process. Do not assume an insurer will approve, pay, or time an amount. ## Capacity constraint Estimate capacity by the actual bottleneck: - inspections per qualified inspector; - estimates/scopes per estimator; - permits and material availability; - crews and job-days by roof type; - production-manager bandwidth; - quality-control and punch-list capacity; - collections and administrative processing. Booked revenue above capacity can increase cancellations, cycle time, customer issues, and cash strain. ## Cash timing Build a monthly waterfall from lead to collection. Record deposit/payment terms, financing timing, customer responsibility, production schedule, invoicing, and historical collection lag. Keep coverage and carrier decisions outside the sales forecast unless documented by the authorized party. ## Acquisition and profit Subtract fully loaded source cost and sales cost: **Storm contribution = collected gross profit − lead/marketing cost − incremental sales cost − storm setup/operating cost** Include temporary office, travel, lodging, data, permits, fleet, devices, recruiting, training, management, and cleanup when they are incremental. Use the [roofing lead-cost calculator](/blog/roofing-lead-cost-calculator) for source economics and the [30-day onboarding plan](/blog/30-day-roofing-sales-onboarding-plan) for safe capacity gates. Use the [roofing marketing ROI calculator](/blog/roofing-marketing-roi-calculator) when fully loaded acquisition cost must be compared with collected gross profit, and the [AI sales forecasting guide](/blog/ai-sales-forecasting-for-roofing-companies) when the model must reconcile signed work with production and cash timing. ## Sensitivity checks Test: - valid and contact rates; - held and close rates; - job mix and gross margin; - cancellation and collection; - crew/job-day capacity; - weather interruptions; - material/permit lag; - lead cost and manager capacity. Publish downside, base, and upside results. A plan that is viable only at the highest close rate and fastest production case is fragile. ## Frequently asked questions ### Is storm revenue the same as signed contract value? No. Separate signed, completed, invoiced, collected, and gross-profit values. ### What is the most important input? The current bottleneck. More leads do not help when inspection, estimating, production, or collection capacity is full. ### Should insurance proceeds be forecast? Use only documented information from authorized parties and preserve uncertainty. Do not have sales staff or a calculator predict coverage or approval. ### How should close rate be chosen? Use mature comparable cohorts by source, territory, job type, rep experience, and season. Show a range. ### How often should the forecast update? At a cadence operations can use—often weekly during an active storm—with a data cutoff, changed assumptions, and actual-versus-forecast review.